Negative Industry Trends are Bound to Change for the Better

Negative Industry Trends are Bound to Change for the Better - Dealernews

About Us | Subscribe | RSS icon

RSS | Digital Edition | Twitter icon

Negative Industry Trends are Bound to Change for the Better

Publish date: Jun 1, 2009
By: Don J. Brown
Source: Dealernews

Email|Print|

|Save|License

MOTORCYCLE Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009

HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL, which is a good thing for those who believe in it, as I do. There is no place in this business for those who don't use such ammunition against all sorts of unexpected, unwanted measures that seek to close the doors of their businesses before their time. (Click on charts for larger view.)

TOURING Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009

While I would like to be able to talk about how the economy is improving, there isn't much out there to whistle about. There are four or five indices that I tend to lean on when it comes to keeping an eye on how the banks are getting through the government's "stress tests." I haven't figured out yet whether it's the banks that fail their tests that get another billion dollars or so of our money, or whether it's the other way around. Will it matter?

DIRTBIKE Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009

What's this got to do with the powersports industry? Plenty! When the economy starts to improve again, guess what's bound to accompany that otherwise welcome trend? Higher interest rates! As I have said before, I am not in the game of preaching my view of what's happening with the economy, but it's at least a good idea to know what to expect. Those who remember the Reagan years will know what it means to operate a business when interest rates are running as high as 22 percent.

CRUISER Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009

Fortunately, that period didn't last too long, but it sure hurt both sides of the selling-and-buying equation of motorcycles, ATVs, scooters, personal watercraft and — well, you get the idea. Why the high interest rates? Inflation! Nothing is feared more by the government, by consumer-based companies or by Wall Street companies (depending on which side of the equation they are playing).

SPORTBIKE Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009

So much for the sense of dollars. The sale of products in the powersports industry hasn't been especially encouraging, even though it has been only a while since double-digit sales increases were still encouraging buyers and sellers alike. We still have double-digits, but now they're colored red, and they aren't just for the cash-strapped manufacturers — it's across the board in too many categories for us to be comfortable.