This market forecast refers to numbers for on-road gas-powered scooters only. There are differences between scooters and mopeds, although many communities seem to consider them identical for legislative purposes. This article does not include the more traditional mopeds or motorized bicycles such as the Whizzer or Tomos. It also excludes electric scooters, although that niche is growing in popularity as evidenced by the number of distributors that are investigating importing hybrid and electric scooters. Gopeds, g-scooters or foot scooters also are not included in the forecast calculations.

Contrary To Some Earlier Forecasts, the overall scooter market in 2007 actually experienced a slight downturn. Sales of scooter units by the OEMs reporting to the Motorcycle Industry Council (MIC) were flat compared to the volumes sold in 2006, whereas scooter sales by nontraditional brands actually declined. Total estimated sales for last year stood at 149,000 units, down more than 5 percent from the number of scooters sold by dealers in 2006.

However, it appears that last year's market decline was only a temporary dip. By the last quarter of 2007 the scooter market was heating up again, and has been generating considerable growth so far in 2008.

TRADITIONAL VS. NONTRADITIONAL

The OEMs and distributors that compete in the U.S. scooter market can be segmented into two groups: the traditional brands that report to the MIC (see DJB Composite Index) and the nontraditional brands that have emerged in recent years but whose companies do not report sales numbers to the MIC.

Scooter manufacturers reporting sales numbers to the MIC are Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki and Piaggio. Honda and Yamaha continue to be the market segment leaders but the Piaggio group (Piaggio, Aprilia and Vespa) is closing in rapidly, helped in no small part by its MP3 sales. Suzuki continues to rule the 400cc-and-over category with its Burgman series.

U.S. SCOOTER MARKET 1999 – 2007

Given the increasing weakness of the dollar it's unlikely that we'll see a return to the U.S. by Derbi, Malaguti or Peugeot anytime soon unless someone is willing to sink considerable investment into establishing brand presence. However, in the longer term these brands may become more attractive for a distributor if the willingness of U.S. consumers to hop on a scooter continues to grow.

Piaggio has demonstrated what is possible — with clever marketing, good products and a willingness to persist — as its U.S. scooter sales have increased more than 80 percent since 2002. Piaggio is now a force to be reckoned with in the U.S. scooter market.

U.S. SCOOTER MARKET 2007: DISPLACEMENT

The nontraditional brands are comprised of U.S.-based distributors selling Chinese, Taiwanese and Korean products that are often sourced from numerous and different assembly facilities and manufacturers in Asia. Current leaders in this category include CF Moto, Cobra Powersports, Genuine Scooter, KYMCO, Mod Cycles, Roketa, Schwinn, SunL, Tank Sports and Vento. (The figures provided in this article for the nontraditional brands are limited to retail sales in the U.S. and do not include the significant volumes that are being imported into the U.S. and then resold into South and Central America and the Caribbean. This includes Puerto Rico, where the scooter market largely collapsed when the vehicles fell out of favor during the last year.)